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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

If no one breaks out of the pack, Texans may have a shot at picking the Republican nominee for President

With one week left until the Iowa Caucus, the Republican race for president is beginning to tighten nationally. Last week USA Today/Gallup polled 1000 Republican or Republican leaning voters and the results were as follows:

Giuliani: 27%; vs. 25% two weeks ago and 28% two weeks before that.
Huckabee: 16%; unchanged from two weeks ago and up from 10% two weeks before that.
Sen. John McCain: 14%; vs. 15% and 13% in the previous polls
Fred Thompson: 14%; vs. 15% and 19% in the previous polls.
Mitt Romney: 14%; vs. 12% in both the previous polls.
Rep. Ron Paul: 3%; vs. 4% and 5% in the previous polls.
Alan Keyes: 3%; up from nothing in the previous polls.

No other candidate was above 1% in the latest poll.

It seems as if Giuliani is holding off the Huckabee surge and Alan Keyes ,who just got in the race, is tied with Ron Paul.

Pay attention to what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire as the field begins to thin. Thompson is having trouble catching fire with the base and is not having much luck shaking the perception that he does not have the "fire-in-the-belly" needed to run and win the presidency. Romney's money may not be enough to overcome questions about his flip flops on key issues. Look for McCain to try and tale New Hampshire like he did in 2000 to breath new life into his campaign.

Ron Paul with his record-breaking fundraising will now be a factor in New Hampshire and will be able to stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday on Feb 5th when more than 20 states hold their primaries. There are also rumors that Ron Paul would consider running as a third party candidate if he doesn't do well in the Republican primaries, but Congressman Paul has stated that he has "no intention" of running as a third party candidate.

With 5 candidates bunched up around the top, Texas Republican primary voters may get a chance to influence who the Republican nominee will be. If no one candidate has a strong lead coming out of Feb 5th, Texas' primary on March 4th could be the large block of delegates needed to choose the nominee.

That's why it's even more important this year that Republicans not only vote in the primary for the candidate of their choice, but that they return to their precinct polling station the night of March 4th at 7p when the polls close to attend their precinct conventions.

The precinct convention starts the process to be selected as a delegate for the state and national Republican convention in June and August of 2008.

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