The Markum Report - The Conservative Blog of Galveston County, Texas: CD 22 Update: Former US Congressman Steve Stockman, Libertarian Bob Smither file for Special Election Ladies and Gentlemen.... Now Forming at the North End of Kyle Field... the Nationally Famous.. Fightin' Texas Aggie Band !

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Friday, September 01, 2006

CD 22 Update: Former US Congressman Steve Stockman, Libertarian Bob Smither file for Special Election

Cd 22 conservatives will have several candidates to choose from on the special election ballot for the 2 months left in Tom Delay's unexpired term.

The Secretary of State's office has released the candidate list for the Special Election and along with Republican Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, former US Congressman Steve Stockman has filed.

In another twist, Libertarian Bob Smither hs changed his mind and will run in the special election as well.

Democrat Nick Lampson will not be on the ballot for the Special Election and is focusing his efforts on winning the General Election which will be on the same ballot.

The General Election will be for the full term starting in January.

If none of the five candidates in the Special Election get more than 50% of the vote, there will be a Special Election Runoff in December between the two top vote getters for the one month term.



In a new poll this week Democrat frontrunner Nick Lampson leads Libertarian darkhorse Bob Smither 41% to 25%. These are the only two names on the ballot, apparently confusing many would-be Republican voters.

"Undecided", at 23%, shows more than twice the support of Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, at 11%, in Tom DeLay's old Sugarland-area district. Write-in candidate Sekula-Gibbs' absence from the ballot apparently explains why she garners so little support in a strongly Republican district.

This new poll shows the extent to which the Congressional race in District 22 has been roiled by the lack of a Republican name on the ballot. Democrat Nick Lampson, sitting on a near $3 million war chest, appears largely uncontested in the conservative district that supported President Bush in the 2004 election with a 64% vote tally.

Underdog Bob Smither offered this view of the results, "The voters of District 22 have only one conservative option on the ballot. I believe my numbers will surge once Republican conservatives realize I can win. They will agree that I must win, or Lampson could be the critical vote that makes liberal San Franciscan Nancy Pelosi the next Speaker of the House. The fatal flaw in the Sekula-Gibbs candidacy is that most voters will never even consider her name as an option since her name is not on the ballot. What is it they say, 'Out of sight, out of mind.'"

Kevin Tunstall, Smither's campaign manager, announced that their campaign hopes to complete a broader survey "within the ethical guidelines and scientific methodologies that are standard to the scholarly polling profession" in the near future. However, in light of the recent release of a Republican poll which "assumed arguendo" that Sekula-Gibbs' name was on the ballot and which never even mentioned the name of Bob Smither, who IS on the ballot, even this unscientific straw poll provides the district's voters with a more honest sense of where real support lies at the present time.

The telephone poll of 100 randomly selected district residents showed:

Nick Lampson, Democrat: 41%
Bob Smither, Libertarian: 25%
Undecided: 23%
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, Rep. 11%

The methodology of this unscientific survey was as follows: Choose names at random from a district criss-cross telephone directory, and contact a total of 100 adults. Only one two part question was asked. The dialogue was:

"Good afternoon. We are conducting a poll in the District 22 Congressional race. May I ask you a question about that race?

(If yes) There are two names on the ballot: Nick Lampson, Democrat; Bob Smither, Libertarian. If the election were held tomorrow, which of these two candidates would you vote for, or would you write in the name of another candidate? (If they said write-in, then, "Who?" No choices were provided.)"

This poll was conducted in the evenings over a three day period from Monday, September 25, through Wednesday, September 27.

Lloyd Laughlin

"Mr. Smither Goes to Washington"
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